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Topoli vs Ustrem Donchevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Topoli
Topoli
FT
1 – 0
Ustrem Donchevo
Ustrem Donchevo
10/6/2018Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 7Stadion Topoli (Topoli)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Topoli48%
×Draw22%
Ustrem Donchevo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Topoli
1.92
Ustrem Donchevo
1.47

Topoli creates 31% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 105 away

creates per match

Topoli
1.21
Ustrem Donchevo
1.24

allows per match

Topoli
1.70
Ustrem Donchevo
2.62

finishing

Topoli+0.00on par
Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Topoli ↓

Ustrem Donchevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Topoli or draw
70%
Topoli or Ustrem Donchevo
78%
Draw or Ustrem Donchevo
52%

Winning margin

Topoli wins by 2+
27%
Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Topoli 1+ goals
85%
Topoli 2+ goals
57%
Topoli 3+ goals
30%
Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals
77%
Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals
43%
Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Topoli (draw refunded)
62%
Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Topoli at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Ustrem Donchevo away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.62 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Topoli attack 1.21 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.92

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.24 + Topoli defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Topoli scores more
48%
level
22%
Ustrem Donchevo scores more
30%

Topoli at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Topoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Topoli vs Ustrem Donchevo

Topoli beat Ustrem Donchevo 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Topoli (Topoli).