Topoli 1–6 Svetkavitsa Targovishte: Result & Stats

Topoli

FT

1 – 6

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

10/18/2020

Third League - Northeast · North-East - 10Stadion Topoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Topoli44%

×Draw23%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TopoliExpected goals in this matchSvetkavitsa Targovishte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.50

Topoli

1.75

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

1.50

Topoli creates 17% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 105 away

1.21

creates per match

1.29

1.70

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Topoli

1.21

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

1.29

allows per match

Topoli

1.70

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Topoli+0.00on par

Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Topoli ↓

Svetkavitsa Targovishte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Topoli or draw

67%

Topoli or Svetkavitsa Targovishte

77%

Draw or Svetkavitsa Targovishte

56%

Winning margin

Topoli wins by 2+

23%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Topoli 1+ goals

83%

Topoli 2+ goals

52%

Topoli 3+ goals

25%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals

78%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals

44%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Topoli (draw refunded)

57%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Topoli at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.30 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Topoli attack 1.21 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.75

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.29 + Topoli defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Topoli scores more

44%

level

23%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more

33%

Topoli at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Topoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff