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Topoli vs Hitrino — Third League - Northeast 2018

Topoli
Topoli
FT
0 – 2
Hitrino
Hitrino
9/1/2018Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 3Stadion Topoli (Topoli)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Topoli42%
×Draw26%
Hitrino32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Topoli
1.46
Hitrino
1.23

Topoli creates 19% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 24 away

creates per match

Topoli
1.21
Hitrino
0.75

allows per match

Topoli
1.70
Hitrino
1.71

finishing

Topoli+0.00on par
Hitrino+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Topoli ↓

Hitrino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Topoli or draw
68%
Topoli or Hitrino
74%
Draw or Hitrino
58%

Winning margin

Topoli wins by 2+
20%
Hitrino wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Topoli 1+ goals
77%
Topoli 2+ goals
43%
Topoli 3+ goals
18%
Hitrino 1+ goals
71%
Hitrino 2+ goals
35%
Hitrino 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Topoli (draw refunded)
57%
Hitrino (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Topoli at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Hitrino away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Topoli attack 1.21 + Hitrino defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Hitrino attack 0.75 + Topoli defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Topoli scores more
42%
level
26%
Hitrino scores more
32%

Topoli at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Topoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Topoli 0–2 Hitrino

Hitrino beat Topoli 2-0 in Third League - Northeast on September 1, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Topoli (Topoli).