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Topoli vs Dunav Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Topoli
Topoli
FT
1 – 3
Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
5/9/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 27Stadion Topoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Topoli22%
×Draw21%
Dunav Ruse57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Topoli
1.20
Dunav Ruse
2.04

Dunav Ruse creates 70% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 27 away

creates per match

Topoli
1.21
Dunav Ruse
2.37

allows per match

Topoli
1.70
Dunav Ruse
1.19

finishing

Topoli+0.00on par
Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Topoli ↓

Dunav Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Topoli or draw
43%
Topoli or Dunav Ruse
79%
Draw or Dunav Ruse
78%

Winning margin

Topoli wins by 2+
9%
Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Topoli 1+ goals
70%
Topoli 2+ goals
34%
Topoli 3+ goals
12%
Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
87%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
60%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Topoli (draw refunded)
28%
Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Topoli at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Topoli attack 1.21 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.20

Dunav Ruse attack 2.37 + Topoli defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Topoli scores more
22%
level
21%
Dunav Ruse scores more
57%

Dunav Ruse at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Topoli vs Dunav Ruse

Dunav Ruse beat Topoli 3-1 in Third League - Northeast on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Topoli in Topoli.