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Topoli vs Benkovski Byala — Third League - Northeast 2018

Topoli
Topoli
FT
3 – 1
Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
10/12/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 9Stadion Topoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Topoli68%
×Draw18%
Benkovski Byala14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Topoli
2.41
Benkovski Byala
1.00

Topoli creates 141% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 20 away

creates per match

Topoli
1.21
Benkovski Byala
0.30

allows per match

Topoli
1.70
Benkovski Byala
3.60

finishing

Topoli+0.00on par
Benkovski Byala+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Topoli ↓

Benkovski Byala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Topoli or draw
86%
Topoli or Benkovski Byala
82%
Draw or Benkovski Byala
32%

Winning margin

Topoli wins by 2+
46%
Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Topoli 1+ goals
91%
Topoli 2+ goals
69%
Topoli 3+ goals
43%
Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
63%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
26%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Topoli (draw refunded)
83%
Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Topoli at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Benkovski Byala away — creates 0.30, concedes 3.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Topoli attack 1.21 + Benkovski Byala defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.41

Benkovski Byala attack 0.30 + Topoli defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Topoli scores more
68%
level
18%
Benkovski Byala scores more
14%

Topoli at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Topoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Topoli 3 – 1 Benkovski Byala

Topoli beat Benkovski Byala 3-1 in Third League - Northeast on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Topoli in Topoli.