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Toplicanin Prokuplje vs Timočanin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
FT
2 – 2
Timočanin
Timočanin
4/15/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 22Stadion FK Toplicanin Prokuplje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje43%
×Draw25%
Timočanin32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.57
Timočanin
1.31

Toplicanin Prokuplje creates 20% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 73 away

creates per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.47
Timočanin
1.05

allows per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.56
Timočanin
1.67

finishing

Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par
Timočanin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toplicanin Prokuplje ↓

Timočanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Toplicanin Prokuplje or draw
68%
Toplicanin Prokuplje or Timočanin
75%
Draw or Timočanin
57%

Winning margin

Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
22%
Timočanin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
79%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
46%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
21%
Timočanin 1+ goals
73%
Timočanin 2+ goals
38%
Timočanin 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
58%
Timočanin (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toplicanin Prokuplje at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

Timočanin away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.47 + Timočanin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

Timočanin attack 1.05 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
43%
level
25%
Timočanin scores more
32%

Toplicanin Prokuplje at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Toplicanin Prokuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Toplicanin Prokuplje vs Timočanin

Toplicanin Prokuplje and Timočanin drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - East on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Toplicanin Prokuplje in Prokuplje.