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Toplicanin Prokuplje vs Pčinja Trgovište — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
FT
3 – 2
Pčinja Trgovište
Pčinja Trgovište
9/17/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 6Stadion FK Toplicanin Prokuplje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje45%
×Draw24%
Pčinja Trgovište31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.67
Pčinja Trgovište
1.33

Toplicanin Prokuplje creates 26% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 63 away

creates per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.47
Pčinja Trgovište
1.11

allows per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.56
Pčinja Trgovište
1.87

finishing

Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par
Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toplicanin Prokuplje ↓

Pčinja Trgovište →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Toplicanin Prokuplje or draw
69%
Toplicanin Prokuplje or Pčinja Trgovište
76%
Draw or Pčinja Trgovište
55%

Winning margin

Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
24%
Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
81%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
50%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
23%
Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals
74%
Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals
38%
Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
60%
Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toplicanin Prokuplje at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

Pčinja Trgovište away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.47 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.67

Pčinja Trgovište attack 1.11 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
45%
level
24%
Pčinja Trgovište scores more
31%

Toplicanin Prokuplje at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Toplicanin Prokuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Toplicanin Prokuplje 3–2 Pčinja Trgovište

Toplicanin Prokuplje beat Pčinja Trgovište 3-2 in Srpska Liga - East on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Toplicanin Prokuplje in Prokuplje.