Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Toplicanin Prokuplje vs Dunav Prahovo — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
FT
1 – 1
Dunav Prahovo
Dunav Prahovo
10/10/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 12Stadion FK Toplicanin Prokuplje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje46%
×Draw24%
Dunav Prahovo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.69
Dunav Prahovo
1.31

Toplicanin Prokuplje creates 29% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 79 away

creates per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.47
Dunav Prahovo
1.05

allows per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.56
Dunav Prahovo
1.90

finishing

Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par
Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toplicanin Prokuplje ↓

Dunav Prahovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Toplicanin Prokuplje or draw
70%
Toplicanin Prokuplje or Dunav Prahovo
76%
Draw or Dunav Prahovo
54%

Winning margin

Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
24%
Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
82%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
50%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
24%
Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals
73%
Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals
38%
Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
61%
Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toplicanin Prokuplje at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

Dunav Prahovo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.90 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.47 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.69

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.05 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
46%
level
24%
Dunav Prahovo scores more
30%

Toplicanin Prokuplje at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Toplicanin Prokuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Toplicanin Prokuplje 1–1 Dunav Prahovo

Toplicanin Prokuplje and Dunav Prahovo drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - East on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Toplicanin Prokuplje in Prokuplje.