Toplicanin Prokuplje 0–3 Dubočica: Result & Stats

Toplicanin Prokuplje

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Dubočica

5/13/2023

Srpska Liga - East · East - 26Stadion FK Toplicanin Prokuplje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje31%

×Draw25%

Dubočica44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Toplicanin ProkupljeExpected goals in this matchDubočica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.56

Toplicanin Prokuplje

1.27

Dubočica

1.56

Dubočica creates 23% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 37 away

1.47

creates per match

1.57

1.56

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje

1.47

Dubočica

1.57

allows per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje

1.56

Dubočica

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par

Dubočica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toplicanin Prokuplje ↓

Dubočica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Toplicanin Prokuplje or draw

56%

Toplicanin Prokuplje or Dubočica

75%

Draw or Dubočica

69%

Winning margin

Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+

13%

Dubočica wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals

72%

Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals

36%

Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals

14%

Dubočica 1+ goals

79%

Dubočica 2+ goals

46%

Dubočica 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)

41%

Dubočica (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toplicanin Prokuplje at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

Dubočica away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.47 + Dubočica defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dubočica attack 1.57 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more

31%

level

25%

Dubočica scores more

44%

Dubočica at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dubočica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff