Tooro United 1–3 Busoga United: Result & Stats

Tooro United

FT

1 – 3

Busoga United

11/5/2021

Premier League · Round 5Buhinga Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Tooro United38%

×Draw27%

Busoga United35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tooro UnitedExpected goals in this matchBusoga United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.23

Tooro United

1.30

Busoga United

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 69 away

0.82

creates per match

0.84

1.61

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Tooro United

0.82

Busoga United

0.84

allows per match

Tooro United

1.61

Busoga United

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tooro United+0.00on par

Busoga United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tooro United ↓

Busoga United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tooro United or draw

65%

Tooro United or Busoga United

73%

Draw or Busoga United

62%

Winning margin

Tooro United wins by 2+

17%

Busoga United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tooro United 1+ goals

73%

Tooro United 2+ goals

37%

Tooro United 3+ goals

14%

Busoga United 1+ goals

71%

Busoga United 2+ goals

35%

Busoga United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tooro United (draw refunded)

52%

Busoga United (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tooro United at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

Busoga United away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.78 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tooro United attack 0.82 + Busoga United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.30

Busoga United attack 0.84 + Tooro United defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tooro United scores more

38%

level

27%

Busoga United scores more

35%

Tooro United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tooro United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff