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Tooro United vs Bright Stars — Premier League 2019

Tooro United
Tooro United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Bright Stars
Bright Stars
4/13/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Buhinga Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Tooro United33%
×Draw28%
Bright Stars39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tooro United
1.11
Bright Stars
1.24

Bright Stars creates 12% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 83 away

creates per match

Tooro United
0.82
Bright Stars
0.86

allows per match

Tooro United
1.61
Bright Stars
1.41

finishing

Tooro United+0.00on par
Bright Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tooro United ↓

Bright Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tooro United or draw
61%
Tooro United or Bright Stars
72%
Draw or Bright Stars
67%

Winning margin

Tooro United wins by 2+
13%
Bright Stars wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tooro United 1+ goals
67%
Tooro United 2+ goals
30%
Tooro United 3+ goals
10%
Bright Stars 1+ goals
71%
Bright Stars 2+ goals
35%
Bright Stars 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tooro United (draw refunded)
46%
Bright Stars (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tooro United at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

Bright Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tooro United attack 0.82 + Bright Stars defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.11

Bright Stars attack 0.86 + Tooro United defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tooro United scores more
33%
level
28%
Bright Stars scores more
39%

Bright Stars at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bright Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tooro United 1–2 Bright Stars

Bright Stars beat Tooro United 2-1 in Premier League on April 13, 2022.

The match was played at Buhinga Football Stadium in Fort Portal.