Töölön Vesa 0–5 PuiU Helsinki: Result & Stats

Töölön Vesa

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

PuiU Helsinki

4/29/2023

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundLatokartano Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Töölön Vesa13%

×Draw15%

PuiU Helsinki72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Töölön VesaExpected goals in this matchPuiU Helsinki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

2.98

Töölön Vesa

1.25

PuiU Helsinki

2.98

PuiU Helsinki creates 138% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

4.22

1.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Töölön Vesa

1.50

PuiU Helsinki

4.22

allows per match

Töölön Vesa

1.75

PuiU Helsinki

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Töölön Vesa+0.00on par

PuiU Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Töölön Vesa ↓

PuiU Helsinki →

0–02%

0–14%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Töölön Vesa or draw

28%

Töölön Vesa or PuiU Helsinki

85%

Draw or PuiU Helsinki

87%

Winning margin

Töölön Vesa wins by 2+

PuiU Helsinki wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

Töölön Vesa 1+ goals

71%

Töölön Vesa 2+ goals

36%

Töölön Vesa 3+ goals

13%

PuiU Helsinki 1+ goals

95%

PuiU Helsinki 2+ goals

79%

PuiU Helsinki 3+ goals

56%

Draw no bet

Töölön Vesa (draw refunded)

16%

PuiU Helsinki (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Töölön Vesa at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

PuiU Helsinki away — creates 4.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Töölön Vesa attack 1.50 + PuiU Helsinki defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

PuiU Helsinki attack 4.22 + Töölön Vesa defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Töölön Vesa scores more

13%

level

15%

PuiU Helsinki scores more

72%

PuiU Helsinki at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "PuiU Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff