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Töölön Vesa vs GrIFK U23 — Suomen Cup 2018

Töölön Vesa
Töölön Vesa
FT
1 – 0
GrIFK U23
GrIFK U23
4/2/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundFA Solutions Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Töölön Vesa46%
×Draw23%
GrIFK U2330%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Töölön Vesa
1.75
GrIFK U23
1.38

Töölön Vesa creates 27% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Töölön Vesa
1.50
GrIFK U23
1.00

allows per match

Töölön Vesa
1.75
GrIFK U23
2.00

finishing

Töölön Vesa+0.00on par
GrIFK U23+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Töölön Vesa ↓

GrIFK U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Töölön Vesa or draw
70%
Töölön Vesa or GrIFK U23
77%
Draw or GrIFK U23
54%

Winning margin

Töölön Vesa wins by 2+
25%
GrIFK U23 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Töölön Vesa 1+ goals
83%
Töölön Vesa 2+ goals
52%
Töölön Vesa 3+ goals
25%
GrIFK U23 1+ goals
75%
GrIFK U23 2+ goals
40%
GrIFK U23 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Töölön Vesa (draw refunded)
60%
GrIFK U23 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Töölön Vesa at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

GrIFK U23 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Töölön Vesa attack 1.50 + GrIFK U23 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

GrIFK U23 attack 1.00 + Töölön Vesa defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Töölön Vesa scores more
46%
level
23%
GrIFK U23 scores more
30%

Töölön Vesa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Töölön Vesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Töölön Vesa vs GrIFK U23

Töölön Vesa beat GrIFK U23 1-0 in Suomen Cup on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at FA Solutions Arena in Grankulla.