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Töölön Taisto vs SexyPöxyt — Suomen Cup 2018

Töölön Taisto
Töölön Taisto
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SexyPöxyt
SexyPöxyt
4/1/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundTöölö PK 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Töölön Taisto6%
×Draw10%
SexyPöxyt84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Töölön Taisto
0.97
SexyPöxyt
3.67

SexyPöxyt creates 278% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Töölön Taisto
1.20
SexyPöxyt
3.75

allows per match

Töölön Taisto
3.60
SexyPöxyt
0.75

finishing

Töölön Taisto+0.00on par
SexyPöxyt+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Töölön Taisto ↓

SexyPöxyt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–39%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Töölön Taisto or draw
16%
Töölön Taisto or SexyPöxyt
90%
Draw or SexyPöxyt
94%

Winning margin

Töölön Taisto wins by 2+
2%
SexyPöxyt wins by 2+
68%

Team goals

Töölön Taisto 1+ goals
62%
Töölön Taisto 2+ goals
25%
Töölön Taisto 3+ goals
7%
SexyPöxyt 1+ goals
97%
SexyPöxyt 2+ goals
87%
SexyPöxyt 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

Töölön Taisto (draw refunded)
7%
SexyPöxyt (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Töölön Taisto at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

SexyPöxyt away — creates 3.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Töölön Taisto attack 1.20 + SexyPöxyt defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.97

SexyPöxyt attack 3.75 + Töölön Taisto defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 3.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Töölön Taisto scores more
6%
level
10%
SexyPöxyt scores more
84%

SexyPöxyt at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "SexyPöxyt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Töölön Taisto 0–0 SexyPöxyt

Töölön Taisto and SexyPöxyt drew 0-0 in Suomen Cup on April 1, 2022.

The match was played at Töölö PK 1 Tekonurmi in Helsinki.