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Töölön Taisto vs KäPa — Suomen Cup 2018

Töölön Taisto
Töölön Taisto
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
KäPa
KäPa
5/8/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundTöölö PK 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Töölön Taisto12%
×Draw13%
KäPa75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Töölön Taisto
1.35
KäPa
3.40

KäPa creates 152% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Töölön Taisto
1.20
KäPa
3.20

allows per match

Töölön Taisto
3.60
KäPa
1.50

finishing

Töölön Taisto+0.00on par
KäPa+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Töölön Taisto ↓

KäPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Töölön Taisto or draw
25%
Töölön Taisto or KäPa
87%
Draw or KäPa
88%

Winning margin

Töölön Taisto wins by 2+
5%
KäPa wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Töölön Taisto 1+ goals
74%
Töölön Taisto 2+ goals
39%
Töölön Taisto 3+ goals
15%
KäPa 1+ goals
96%
KäPa 2+ goals
84%
KäPa 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Töölön Taisto (draw refunded)
14%
KäPa (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Töölön Taisto at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

KäPa away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Töölön Taisto attack 1.20 + KäPa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

KäPa attack 3.20 + Töölön Taisto defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 3.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Töölön Taisto scores more
12%
level
13%
KäPa scores more
75%

KäPa at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "KäPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Töölön Taisto vs KäPa

Töölön Taisto and KäPa drew 1-1 in Suomen Cup on May 8, 2024.

The match was played at Töölö PK 1 Tekonurmi in Helsinki.