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Töölön Taisto vs GrIFK U23 — Suomen Cup 2018

Töölön Taisto
Töölön Taisto
FT
2 – 0
GrIFK U23
GrIFK U23
3/24/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundTöölön Pallokenttä 6 tn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Töölön Taisto27%
×Draw20%
GrIFK U2353%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Töölön Taisto
1.60
GrIFK U23
2.30

GrIFK U23 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Töölön Taisto
1.20
GrIFK U23
1.00

allows per match

Töölön Taisto
3.60
GrIFK U23
2.00

finishing

Töölön Taisto+0.00on par
GrIFK U23+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Töölön Taisto ↓

GrIFK U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Töölön Taisto or draw
47%
Töölön Taisto or GrIFK U23
80%
Draw or GrIFK U23
73%

Winning margin

Töölön Taisto wins by 2+
12%
GrIFK U23 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Töölön Taisto 1+ goals
80%
Töölön Taisto 2+ goals
47%
Töölön Taisto 3+ goals
22%
GrIFK U23 1+ goals
90%
GrIFK U23 2+ goals
67%
GrIFK U23 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Töölön Taisto (draw refunded)
34%
GrIFK U23 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Töölön Taisto at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

GrIFK U23 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Töölön Taisto attack 1.20 + GrIFK U23 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

GrIFK U23 attack 1.00 + Töölön Taisto defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Töölön Taisto scores more
27%
level
20%
GrIFK U23 scores more
53%

GrIFK U23 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "GrIFK U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Töölön Taisto vs GrIFK U23

Töölön Taisto beat GrIFK U23 2-0 in Suomen Cup on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Töölön Pallokenttä 6 tn in Helsinki.