Töölön Taisto 1–7 EPS: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Töölön Taisto

1 – 7

HT: 1 – 1

EPS

4/27/2023

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundTöölö PK 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Töölön Taisto8%

×Draw12%

EPS80%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Töölön TaistoExpected goals in this matchEPS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

3.30

Töölön Taisto

1.03

EPS

3.30

EPS creates 220% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.20

creates per match

3.00

3.60

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Töölön Taisto

1.20

EPS

3.00

allows per match

Töölön Taisto

3.60

EPS

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Töölön Taisto+0.00on par

EPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Töölön Taisto ↓

EPS →

0–01%

0–15%

0–28%

0–38%

0–47%

1–01%

1–15%

1–28%

1–39%

1–47%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–34%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Töölön Taisto or draw

20%

Töölön Taisto or EPS

88%

Draw or EPS

92%

Winning margin

Töölön Taisto wins by 2+

EPS wins by 2+

61%

Team goals

Töölön Taisto 1+ goals

64%

Töölön Taisto 2+ goals

28%

Töölön Taisto 3+ goals

EPS 1+ goals

96%

EPS 2+ goals

83%

EPS 3+ goals

62%

Draw no bet

Töölön Taisto (draw refunded)

10%

EPS (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Töölön Taisto at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

EPS away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Töölön Taisto attack 1.20 + EPS defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

EPS attack 3.00 + Töölön Taisto defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 3.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 80%?"

Töölön Taisto scores more

level

12%

EPS scores more

80%

EPS at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "EPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff