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Tonnerre vs USB — Championnat National 2019

Tonnerre
Tonnerre
FT
1 – 0
USB
USB
11/21/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 4Stade Omnisports Paulin Tomanaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tonnerre46%
×Draw30%
USB24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonnerre
1.20
USB
0.79

Tonnerre creates 52% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tonnerre
1.04
USB
0.71

allows per match

Tonnerre
0.87
USB
1.35

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par
USB+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

USB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw
76%
Tonnerre or USB
70%
Draw or USB
54%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+
20%
USB wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals
70%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
34%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
12%
USB 1+ goals
55%
USB 2+ goals
19%
USB 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)
65%
USB (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.87 · 85 matches

USB away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 1.04 + USB defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.20

USB attack 0.71 + Tonnerre defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tonnerre scores more
46%
level
30%
USB scores more
24%

Tonnerre at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tonnerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tonnerre vs USB

Tonnerre beat USB 1-0 in Championnat National on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Paulin Tomanaga in Bohicon.