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Tonnerre vs UMS de Loum — Elite One 2019

Tonnerre
Tonnerre
FT
1 – 1
UMS de Loum
UMS de Loum
4/21/2021Elite OneElite One · Round 8Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Tonnerre30%
×Draw31%
UMS de Loum39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonnerre
0.90
UMS de Loum
1.07

UMS de Loum creates 19% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 66 away

creates per match

Tonnerre
0.91
UMS de Loum
0.92

allows per match

Tonnerre
1.23
UMS de Loum
0.89

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par
UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

UMS de Loum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw
61%
Tonnerre or UMS de Loum
69%
Draw or UMS de Loum
70%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+
10%
UMS de Loum wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals
59%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
23%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
6%
UMS de Loum 1+ goals
66%
UMS de Loum 2+ goals
29%
UMS de Loum 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)
44%
UMS de Loum (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.23 · 35 matches

UMS de Loum away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.89 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 0.91 + UMS de Loum defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.90

UMS de Loum attack 0.92 + Tonnerre defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tonnerre scores more
30%
level
31%
UMS de Loum scores more
39%

UMS de Loum at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UMS de Loum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tonnerre vs UMS de Loum

Tonnerre and UMS de Loum drew 1-1 in Elite One on April 21, 2021.

The match was played at Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo in Mbankomo.