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Tonnerre vs Stade Renard — Elite One 2019

Tonnerre
Tonnerre
FT
1 – 0
Stade Renard
Stade Renard
4/2/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 6Stade Olembe Annexe B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Tonnerre33%
×Draw30%
Stade Renard36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonnerre
0.99
Stade Renard
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 96 away

creates per match

Tonnerre
0.91
Stade Renard
0.88

allows per match

Tonnerre
1.23
Stade Renard
1.07

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par
Stade Renard+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

Stade Renard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw
64%
Tonnerre or Stade Renard
70%
Draw or Stade Renard
67%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+
12%
Stade Renard wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals
63%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
26%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
8%
Stade Renard 1+ goals
65%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
28%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)
48%
Stade Renard (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.23 · 35 matches

Stade Renard away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 0.91 + Stade Renard defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.99

Stade Renard attack 0.88 + Tonnerre defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tonnerre scores more
33%
level
30%
Stade Renard scores more
36%

Stade Renard at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Stade Renard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tonnerre vs Stade Renard

Tonnerre beat Stade Renard 1-0 in Elite One on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Olembe Annexe B in Yaoundé.