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Tonnerre vs PWD Bamenda — Elite One 2019

Tonnerre
Tonnerre
FT
0 – 0
PWD Bamenda
PWD Bamenda
3/9/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 8Stade Militaire (Yaoundé)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tonnerre42%
×Draw30%
PWD Bamenda29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonnerre
1.17
PWD Bamenda
0.92

Tonnerre creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 99 away

creates per match

Tonnerre
1.17
PWD Bamenda
1.01

allows per match

Tonnerre
0.83
PWD Bamenda
1.18

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par
PWD Bamenda+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

PWD Bamenda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw
71%
Tonnerre or PWD Bamenda
70%
Draw or PWD Bamenda
58%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+
18%
PWD Bamenda wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals
69%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
33%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
11%
PWD Bamenda 1+ goals
60%
PWD Bamenda 2+ goals
23%
PWD Bamenda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)
59%
PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

PWD Bamenda away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.18 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 1.17 + PWD Bamenda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

PWD Bamenda attack 1.01 + Tonnerre defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tonnerre scores more
42%
level
30%
PWD Bamenda scores more
29%

Tonnerre at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tonnerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Tonnerre 0–0 PWD Bamenda

Tonnerre and PWD Bamenda drew 0-0 in Elite One on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Militaire (Yaoundé).