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Tonnerre vs Loto Popo — Championnat National 2019

Tonnerre
Tonnerre
FT
0 – 1
Loto Popo
Loto Popo
5/17/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group A - 31Stade Omnisports Paulin Tomanaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Tonnerre34%
×Draw32%
Loto Popo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonnerre
0.92
Loto Popo
0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 93 away

creates per match

Tonnerre
1.05
Loto Popo
0.99

allows per match

Tonnerre
0.87
Loto Popo
0.78

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par
Loto Popo+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

Loto Popo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw
66%
Tonnerre or Loto Popo
68%
Draw or Loto Popo
66%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+
12%
Loto Popo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals
60%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
23%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
7%
Loto Popo 1+ goals
61%
Loto Popo 2+ goals
24%
Loto Popo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)
50%
Loto Popo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.87 · 82 matches

Loto Popo away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.78 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 1.05 + Loto Popo defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.92

Loto Popo attack 0.99 + Tonnerre defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Tonnerre scores more
34%
level
32%
Loto Popo scores more
34%

Tonnerre at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Tonnerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tonnerre vs Loto Popo

Loto Popo beat Tonnerre 1-0 in Championnat National on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Paulin Tomanaga in Bohicon.