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Tonnerre vs JAC — Championnat National 2019

Tonnerre
Tonnerre
FT
1 – 1
JAC
JAC
12/21/2019Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 10Stade Omnisports Paulin Tomanaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Tonnerre47%
×Draw30%
JAC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonnerre
1.21
JAC
0.74

Tonnerre creates 64% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 42 away

creates per match

Tonnerre
1.05
JAC
0.62

allows per match

Tonnerre
0.87
JAC
1.38

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par
JAC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

JAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw
77%
Tonnerre or JAC
70%
Draw or JAC
53%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+
21%
JAC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals
70%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
34%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
12%
JAC 1+ goals
52%
JAC 2+ goals
17%
JAC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)
68%
JAC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.87 · 82 matches

JAC away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 1.05 + JAC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

JAC attack 0.62 + Tonnerre defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tonnerre scores more
47%
level
30%
JAC scores more
23%

Tonnerre at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tonnerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tonnerre 1 – 1 JAC

Tonnerre and JAC drew 1-1 in Championnat National on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Paulin Tomanaga in Bohicon.