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Tonnerre vs Fovu Club — Elite Two 2020

Tonnerre
Tonnerre
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fovu Club
Fovu Club
1/18/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Tonnerre54%
×Draw25%
Fovu Club21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonnerre
1.63
Fovu Club
0.91

Tonnerre creates 79% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 10 away

creates per match

Tonnerre
1.46
Fovu Club
0.70

allows per match

Tonnerre
1.13
Fovu Club
1.80

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par
Fovu Club+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

Fovu Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw
79%
Tonnerre or Fovu Club
75%
Draw or Fovu Club
46%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+
29%
Fovu Club wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals
80%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
48%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
22%
Fovu Club 1+ goals
60%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
23%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)
72%
Fovu Club (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 46 matches

Fovu Club away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 1.46 + Fovu Club defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.63

Fovu Club attack 0.70 + Tonnerre defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tonnerre scores more
54%
level
25%
Fovu Club scores more
21%

Tonnerre at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tonnerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tonnerre vs Fovu Club

Tonnerre beat Fovu Club 3-0 in Elite Two on January 18, 2025.