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Tonnerre vs Foncha ST — Elite Two 2020

Tonnerre
Tonnerre
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Foncha ST
Foncha ST
11/11/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tonnerre54%
×Draw23%
Foncha ST23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonnerre
1.79
Foncha ST
1.08

Tonnerre creates 66% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 50 away

creates per match

Tonnerre
1.46
Foncha ST
1.04

allows per match

Tonnerre
1.13
Foncha ST
2.12

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par
Foncha ST+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

Foncha ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw
77%
Tonnerre or Foncha ST
77%
Draw or Foncha ST
46%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+
30%
Foncha ST wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals
83%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
53%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
26%
Foncha ST 1+ goals
66%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
29%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)
70%
Foncha ST (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 46 matches

Foncha ST away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 1.46 + Foncha ST defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.79

Foncha ST attack 1.04 + Tonnerre defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tonnerre scores more
54%
level
23%
Foncha ST scores more
23%

Tonnerre at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tonnerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tonnerre vs Foncha ST

Tonnerre and Foncha ST drew 1-1 in Elite Two on November 11, 2023.