Tonnerre 1–0 Dynamique Djougou: Result & Stats

Tonnerre

FT

1 – 0

Dynamique Djougou

5/6/2023

Championnat National · Relegation Round - 8Stade Omnisports Paulin Tomanaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Tonnerre50%

×Draw29%

Dynamique Djougou21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TonnerreExpected goals in this matchDynamique Djougou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.72

Tonnerre

1.27

Dynamique Djougou

0.72

Tonnerre creates 76% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 73 away

1.04

creates per match

0.56

0.87

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Tonnerre

1.04

Dynamique Djougou

0.56

allows per match

Tonnerre

0.87

Dynamique Djougou

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par

Dynamique Djougou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

Dynamique Djougou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw

79%

Tonnerre or Dynamique Djougou

71%

Draw or Dynamique Djougou

50%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+

23%

Dynamique Djougou wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals

72%

Tonnerre 2+ goals

36%

Tonnerre 3+ goals

14%

Dynamique Djougou 1+ goals

51%

Dynamique Djougou 2+ goals

16%

Dynamique Djougou 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)

70%

Dynamique Djougou (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.87 · 83 matches

Dynamique Djougou away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.49 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 1.04 + Dynamique Djougou defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dynamique Djougou attack 0.56 + Tonnerre defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tonnerre scores more

50%

level

29%

Dynamique Djougou scores more

21%

Tonnerre at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tonnerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff