Tonnerre 2–2 Bafmeng United: Result & Stats

Tonnerre

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bafmeng United

12/28/2023

Elite Two · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Tonnerre47%

×Draw26%

Bafmeng United27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TonnerreExpected goals in this matchBafmeng United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.08

Tonnerre

1.50

Bafmeng United

1.08

Tonnerre creates 39% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 34 away

1.46

creates per match

1.03

1.13

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Tonnerre

1.46

Bafmeng United

1.03

allows per match

Tonnerre

1.13

Bafmeng United

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par

Bafmeng United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

Bafmeng United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw

73%

Tonnerre or Bafmeng United

74%

Draw or Bafmeng United

53%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+

23%

Bafmeng United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals

78%

Tonnerre 2+ goals

44%

Tonnerre 3+ goals

19%

Bafmeng United 1+ goals

66%

Bafmeng United 2+ goals

29%

Bafmeng United 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)

63%

Bafmeng United (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 46 matches

Bafmeng United away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 1.46 + Bafmeng United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bafmeng United attack 1.03 + Tonnerre defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tonnerre scores more

47%

level

26%

Bafmeng United scores more

27%

Tonnerre at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tonnerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff