Bafmeng United 3–1 Tonnerre: Result & Stats

Bafmeng United

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tonnerre

5/6/2026

Elite Two · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Bafmeng United47%

×Draw27%

Tonnerre26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bafmeng UnitedExpected goals in this matchTonnerre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.95

Bafmeng United

1.38

Tonnerre

0.95

Bafmeng United creates 45% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 42 away

1.39

creates per match

1.02

0.87

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Bafmeng United

1.39

Tonnerre

1.02

allows per match

Bafmeng United

0.87

Tonnerre

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bafmeng United+0.00on par

Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bafmeng United ↓

Tonnerre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bafmeng United or draw

74%

Bafmeng United or Tonnerre

73%

Draw or Tonnerre

53%

Winning margin

Bafmeng United wins by 2+

22%

Tonnerre wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bafmeng United 1+ goals

75%

Bafmeng United 2+ goals

40%

Bafmeng United 3+ goals

16%

Tonnerre 1+ goals

61%

Tonnerre 2+ goals

25%

Tonnerre 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bafmeng United (draw refunded)

64%

Tonnerre (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bafmeng United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 31 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bafmeng United attack 1.39 + Tonnerre defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Tonnerre attack 1.02 + Bafmeng United defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bafmeng United scores more

47%

level

27%

Tonnerre scores more

26%

Bafmeng United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bafmeng United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff