Tonnerre 1–2 Ayema: Result & Stats

Tonnerre

FT

1 – 2

Ayema

5/19/2019

Championnat National · Round 32Stade Omnisports Paulin Tomanaga (Bohicon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Tonnerre35%

×Draw33%

Ayema32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TonnerreExpected goals in this matchAyema

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

0.88

Tonnerre

0.93

Ayema

0.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 123 away

1.04

creates per match

0.89

0.87

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Tonnerre

1.04

Ayema

0.89

allows per match

Tonnerre

0.87

Ayema

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par

Ayema+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

Ayema →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw

68%

Tonnerre or Ayema

67%

Draw or Ayema

65%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+

13%

Ayema wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals

61%

Tonnerre 2+ goals

24%

Tonnerre 3+ goals

7%

Ayema 1+ goals

59%

Ayema 2+ goals

22%

Ayema 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)

52%

Ayema (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.87 · 85 matches

Ayema away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.81 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 1.04 + Ayema defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.93

Ayema attack 0.89 + Tonnerre defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Tonnerre scores more

35%

level

33%

Ayema scores more

32%

Tonnerre at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Tonnerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff