Tonnerre 2–1 APEJES Academy: Result & Stats

Tonnerre

FT

2 – 1

APEJES Academy

8/23/2021

Elite One · Round 18Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Tonnerre34%

×Draw29%

APEJES Academy37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TonnerreExpected goals in this matchAPEJES Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.12

Tonnerre

1.07

APEJES Academy

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 67 away

0.91

creates per match

1.01

1.23

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Tonnerre

0.91

APEJES Academy

1.01

allows per match

Tonnerre

1.23

APEJES Academy

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par

APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

APEJES Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw

63%

Tonnerre or APEJES Academy

71%

Draw or APEJES Academy

66%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+

13%

APEJES Academy wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals

66%

Tonnerre 2+ goals

29%

Tonnerre 3+ goals

9%

APEJES Academy 1+ goals

67%

APEJES Academy 2+ goals

31%

APEJES Academy 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)

48%

APEJES Academy (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.23 · 35 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 0.91 + APEJES Academy defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.07

APEJES Academy attack 1.01 + Tonnerre defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tonnerre scores more

34%

level

29%

APEJES Academy scores more

37%

APEJES Academy at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "APEJES Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff