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Tonnerre vs APEJES Academy — Elite One 2019

Tonnerre
Tonnerre
FT
1 – 1
APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
3/31/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 11Stade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo (Yaoundé)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tonnerre43%
×Draw29%
APEJES Academy28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonnerre
1.21
APEJES Academy
0.92

Tonnerre creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 67 away

creates per match

Tonnerre
1.17
APEJES Academy
1.01

allows per match

Tonnerre
0.83
APEJES Academy
1.24

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par
APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

APEJES Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw
72%
Tonnerre or APEJES Academy
71%
Draw or APEJES Academy
57%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+
19%
APEJES Academy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals
70%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
34%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
12%
APEJES Academy 1+ goals
60%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
23%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)
60%
APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 1.17 + APEJES Academy defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

APEJES Academy attack 1.01 + Tonnerre defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tonnerre scores more
43%
level
29%
APEJES Academy scores more
28%

Tonnerre at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tonnerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Tonnerre 1–1 APEJES Academy

Tonnerre and APEJES Academy drew 1-1 in Elite One on March 31, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo (Yaoundé).