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Tondela vs Pacos Ferreira — Segunda Liga 2018

Tondela
Tondela
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pacos Ferreira
Pacos Ferreira
12/1/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 12Estádio João Cardoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Tondela40%
×Draw28%
Pacos Ferreira32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tondela
1.26
Pacos Ferreira
1.08

Tondela creates 17% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 69 away

creates per match

Tondela
1.33
Pacos Ferreira
1.00

allows per match

Tondela
1.16
Pacos Ferreira
1.19

finishing

Tondela+0.00on par
Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tondela ↓

Pacos Ferreira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tondela or draw
68%
Tondela or Pacos Ferreira
72%
Draw or Pacos Ferreira
60%

Winning margin

Tondela wins by 2+
18%
Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tondela 1+ goals
72%
Tondela 2+ goals
36%
Tondela 3+ goals
13%
Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals
66%
Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals
29%
Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tondela (draw refunded)
56%
Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tondela at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tondela attack 1.33 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.26

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.00 + Tondela defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tondela scores more
40%
level
28%
Pacos Ferreira scores more
32%

Tondela at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tondela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tondela vs Pacos Ferreira

Tondela beat Pacos Ferreira 2-1 in Segunda Liga on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio João Cardoso in Tondela.