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Tondela vs Mafra — Segunda Liga 2018

Tondela
Tondela
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mafra
Mafra
3/19/2023Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 25Estádio João Cardoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Tondela43%
×Draw26%
Mafra30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tondela
1.41
Mafra
1.13

Tondela creates 25% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 114 away

creates per match

Tondela
1.33
Mafra
1.10

allows per match

Tondela
1.16
Mafra
1.49

finishing

Tondela+0.00on par
Mafra+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tondela ↓

Mafra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tondela or draw
70%
Tondela or Mafra
74%
Draw or Mafra
57%

Winning margin

Tondela wins by 2+
21%
Mafra wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tondela 1+ goals
76%
Tondela 2+ goals
41%
Tondela 3+ goals
17%
Mafra 1+ goals
68%
Mafra 2+ goals
31%
Mafra 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tondela (draw refunded)
59%
Mafra (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tondela at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

Mafra away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.49 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tondela attack 1.33 + Mafra defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Mafra attack 1.10 + Tondela defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tondela scores more
43%
level
26%
Mafra scores more
30%

Tondela at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tondela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tondela 1 – 2 Mafra

Mafra beat Tondela 2-1 in Segunda Liga on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio João Cardoso in Tondela.