Tondela 1–3 FC Porto: Result & Stats

Tondela

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

FC Porto

Neto Borges 4'

M. Taremi 79', 43', 19'

10/23/2021

Primeira Liga · Round 9Estádio João Cardoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Tondela23%

×Draw25%

FC Porto52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TondelaExpected goals in this matchFC Porto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.62

Tondela

0.98

FC Porto

1.62

FC Porto creates 65% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 27 away

1.10

creates per match

1.70

1.54

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Tondela

1.10

FC Porto

1.70

allows per match

Tondela

1.54

FC Porto

0.85

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Tondela-0.43scores less

FC Porto+0.08on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tondela ↓

FC Porto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tondela or draw

48%

Tondela or FC Porto

75%

Draw or FC Porto

77%

Winning margin

Tondela wins by 2+

8%

FC Porto wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Tondela 1+ goals

62%

Tondela 2+ goals

26%

Tondela 3+ goals

8%

FC Porto 1+ goals

80%

FC Porto 2+ goals

48%

FC Porto 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Tondela (draw refunded)

30%

FC Porto (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tondela at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 12 matches

FC Porto away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tondela attack 1.10 + FC Porto defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.98

FC Porto attack 1.70 + Tondela defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tondela scores more

23%

level

25%

FC Porto scores more

52%

FC Porto at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Taremi

FC Porto · F

9.2

Match Events

4'

Neto Borges↳ Salvador Agra

11'

14'

19'

23'

28'

43'

44'

54'

60'

73'

76'

Fábio Vieira← Evanilson

76'

Sérgio Oliveira← Vitinha

79'

M. Taremi↳ Fábio Vieira

80'

Bebeto← Tiago Almeida

80'

Manu Hernando← J. Murillo

82'

Pepê Aquino← L. Díaz

82'

Francisco Conceição← Otávio

85'

N. Khacef← Neto Borges

86'

Rafael Barbosa← Salvador Agra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TondelaFC

Overview

29%Possession71%

4Total Shots24

3Corners10

9Fouls24

Shots

4Total Shots24

2On Target6

1Off Target15

1Blocked3

3Inside Box14

1Outside Box10

Passing

29%Possession71%

205Total Passes510

122Accurate Passes439

60%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls24

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides4