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Tondela vs AVS — Segunda Liga 2018

Tondela
Tondela
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
AVS
AVS
1/14/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 17Estádio João Cardoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tondela31%
×Draw26%
AVS43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tondela
1.20
AVS
1.46

AVS creates 22% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tondela
1.33
AVS
1.76

allows per match

Tondela
1.16
AVS
1.06

finishing

Tondela+0.00on par
AVS+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tondela ↓

AVS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tondela or draw
57%
Tondela or AVS
74%
Draw or AVS
69%

Winning margin

Tondela wins by 2+
13%
AVS wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Tondela 1+ goals
70%
Tondela 2+ goals
34%
Tondela 3+ goals
12%
AVS 1+ goals
77%
AVS 2+ goals
43%
AVS 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Tondela (draw refunded)
42%
AVS (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tondela at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

AVS away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tondela attack 1.33 + AVS defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

AVS attack 1.76 + Tondela defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tondela scores more
31%
level
26%
AVS scores more
43%

AVS at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AVS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tondela 3 – 2 AVS

Tondela beat AVS 3-2 in Segunda Liga on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio João Cardoso in Tondela.