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Tonbridge Angels vs Worthing — League #51 2026

Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Worthing
Worthing
3/7/2026League #51League #51

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tonbridge Angels46%
×Draw26%
Worthing28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonbridge Angels
1.51
Worthing
1.11

Tonbridge Angels creates 36% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 20 away

creates per match

Tonbridge Angels
1.67
Worthing
1.55

allows per match

Tonbridge Angels
0.67
Worthing
1.35

finishing

Tonbridge Angels+0.00on par
Worthing+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonbridge Angels ↓

Worthing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tonbridge Angels or draw
72%
Tonbridge Angels or Worthing
74%
Draw or Worthing
54%

Winning margin

Tonbridge Angels wins by 2+
23%
Worthing wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tonbridge Angels 1+ goals
78%
Tonbridge Angels 2+ goals
44%
Tonbridge Angels 3+ goals
19%
Worthing 1+ goals
67%
Worthing 2+ goals
30%
Worthing 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tonbridge Angels (draw refunded)
62%
Worthing (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonbridge Angels at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Worthing away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonbridge Angels attack 1.67 + Worthing defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.51

Worthing attack 1.55 + Tonbridge Angels defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tonbridge Angels scores more
46%
level
26%
Worthing scores more
28%

Tonbridge Angels at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tonbridge Angels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tonbridge Angels vs Worthing

Tonbridge Angels beat Worthing 1-0 in League #51 on March 7, 2026.