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Tonbridge Angels vs Biggleswade — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Biggleswade
Biggleswade
Trialist 41'
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tonbridge Angels39%
×Draw33%
Biggleswade28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonbridge Angels
1.00
Biggleswade
0.79

Tonbridge Angels creates 27% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tonbridge Angels
1.00
Biggleswade
0.33

allows per match

Tonbridge Angels
1.25
Biggleswade
1.00

finishing

Tonbridge Angels+0.00on par
Biggleswade+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonbridge Angels ↓

Biggleswade →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tonbridge Angels or draw
72%
Tonbridge Angels or Biggleswade
67%
Draw or Biggleswade
61%

Winning margin

Tonbridge Angels wins by 2+
15%
Biggleswade wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tonbridge Angels 1+ goals
63%
Tonbridge Angels 2+ goals
26%
Tonbridge Angels 3+ goals
8%
Biggleswade 1+ goals
55%
Biggleswade 2+ goals
19%
Biggleswade 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tonbridge Angels (draw refunded)
59%
Biggleswade (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonbridge Angels at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Biggleswade away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonbridge Angels attack 1.00 + Biggleswade defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Biggleswade attack 0.33 + Tonbridge Angels defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tonbridge Angels scores more
39%
level
33%
Biggleswade scores more
28%

Tonbridge Angels at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tonbridge Angels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
Trialist

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Tonbridge Angels 1–0 Biggleswade

Tonbridge Angels beat Biggleswade 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.

Goals: Trialist (41').