Tonbridge Angels 0–3 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Tonbridge Angels

0 – 3

AFC Wimbledon

8/15/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Longmead Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tonbridge Angels24%

×Draw25%

AFC Wimbledon50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tonbridge AngelsExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.56

Tonbridge Angels

1.00

AFC Wimbledon

1.56

AFC Wimbledon creates 56% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

1.88

1.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Tonbridge Angels

1.00

AFC Wimbledon

1.88

allows per match

Tonbridge Angels

1.25

AFC Wimbledon

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tonbridge Angels+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonbridge Angels ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tonbridge Angels or draw

50%

Tonbridge Angels or AFC Wimbledon

75%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

76%

Winning margin

Tonbridge Angels wins by 2+

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Tonbridge Angels 1+ goals

63%

Tonbridge Angels 2+ goals

26%

Tonbridge Angels 3+ goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

79%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

46%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Tonbridge Angels (draw refunded)

33%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tonbridge Angels at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tonbridge Angels attack 1.00 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.88 + Tonbridge Angels defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tonbridge Angels scores more

24%

level

25%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

50%

AFC Wimbledon at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff