Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tona vs Vilassar Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Tona
Tona
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vilassar Mar
Vilassar Mar
3/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 26Camp de futbol de Tona 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Tona42%
×Draw29%
Vilassar Mar29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tona
1.25
Vilassar Mar
0.98

Tona creates 28% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 109 away

creates per match

Tona
1.30
Vilassar Mar
0.92

allows per match

Tona
1.03
Vilassar Mar
1.19

finishing

Tona+0.00on par
Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tona ↓

Vilassar Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tona or draw
71%
Tona or Vilassar Mar
71%
Draw or Vilassar Mar
58%

Winning margin

Tona wins by 2+
19%
Vilassar Mar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tona 1+ goals
71%
Tona 2+ goals
36%
Tona 3+ goals
13%
Vilassar Mar 1+ goals
62%
Vilassar Mar 2+ goals
26%
Vilassar Mar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tona (draw refunded)
59%
Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tona at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 66 matches

Vilassar Mar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tona attack 1.30 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Vilassar Mar attack 0.92 + Tona defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tona scores more
42%
level
29%
Vilassar Mar scores more
29%

Tona at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Tona 2–0 Vilassar Mar

Tona beat Vilassar Mar 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Camp de futbol de Tona 2 in Tona.