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Tona vs Vilanova — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Tona
Tona
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vilanova
Vilanova
M. Roquet 16'
D. Rubio 89'
9/6/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 1Camp de futbol de Tona 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tona41%
×Draw32%
Vilanova27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tona
1.03
Vilanova
0.78

Tona creates 32% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tona
1.30
Vilanova
0.53

allows per match

Tona
1.03
Vilanova
0.76

finishing

Tona+0.00on par
Vilanova+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tona ↓

Vilanova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tona or draw
73%
Tona or Vilanova
68%
Draw or Vilanova
59%

Winning margin

Tona wins by 2+
16%
Vilanova wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tona 1+ goals
64%
Tona 2+ goals
28%
Tona 3+ goals
9%
Vilanova 1+ goals
54%
Vilanova 2+ goals
18%
Vilanova 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tona (draw refunded)
60%
Vilanova (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tona at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 66 matches

Vilanova away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tona attack 1.30 + Vilanova defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.03

Vilanova attack 0.53 + Tona defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tona scores more
41%
level
32%
Vilanova scores more
27%

Tona at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
M. Roquet
89'
D. Rubio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tona 1 – 1 Vilanova

Tona and Vilanova drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 6, 2025.

Goals: M. Roquet (16'), D. Rubio (89').

The match was played at Camp de futbol de Tona 2 in Tona.