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Tona vs Reddis — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Tona
Tona
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Reddis
Reddis
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 33Camp de futbol de Tona 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Tona38%
×Draw29%
Reddis33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tona
1.18
Reddis
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 34 away

creates per match

Tona
1.30
Reddis
1.15

allows per match

Tona
1.03
Reddis
1.06

finishing

Tona+0.00on par
Reddis+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tona ↓

Reddis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tona or draw
67%
Tona or Reddis
71%
Draw or Reddis
62%

Winning margin

Tona wins by 2+
16%
Reddis wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tona 1+ goals
69%
Tona 2+ goals
33%
Tona 3+ goals
12%
Reddis 1+ goals
66%
Reddis 2+ goals
30%
Reddis 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tona (draw refunded)
53%
Reddis (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tona at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 66 matches

Reddis away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tona attack 1.30 + Reddis defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Reddis attack 1.15 + Tona defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tona scores more
38%
level
29%
Reddis scores more
33%

Tona at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tona 2 – 2 Reddis

Tona and Reddis drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Camp de futbol de Tona 2 in Tona.