Tona 2–3 Prat: Result & Stats

Tona

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Prat

Marc Roquet 47'

Flavio Ribeiro 12'

Rober Mañas 57'

Jan Jou 56'

Miguel Fernández 15'

3/30/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 28Camp de futbol de Tona 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Tona43%

×Draw28%

Prat29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TonaExpected goals in this matchPrat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.02

Tona

1.29

Prat

1.02

Tona creates 26% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 34 away

1.30

creates per match

1.00

1.03

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Tona

1.30

Prat

1.00

allows per match

Tona

1.03

Prat

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tona+0.00on par

Prat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tona ↓

Prat →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tona or draw

71%

Tona or Prat

72%

Draw or Prat

57%

Winning margin

Tona wins by 2+

19%

Prat wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tona 1+ goals

72%

Tona 2+ goals

37%

Tona 3+ goals

14%

Prat 1+ goals

64%

Prat 2+ goals

27%

Prat 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tona (draw refunded)

59%

Prat (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tona at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 66 matches

Prat away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tona attack 1.30 + Prat defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Prat attack 1.00 + Tona defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tona scores more

43%

level

28%

Prat scores more

29%

Tona at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

15'

47'

56'

57'

60'

Arnau Camaño← Marc Roquet

60'

Ferran Generó← Daniel Peña

60'

Dani Ribelles← Bernat Casadevall

65'

D. Almeida← Héctor Rodríguez

72'

Moli← Rober Mañas

72'

A. Amhot← Sergi Rosanas

75'

Guillem Escarrabill← Xavi Aparicio

83'

Jordi Buyreu← Lamelas

83'

Marc Font← Julen Álvarez

Tona

Prat

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Roquet

⚽

Ribeiro

Manager: Ricard Farrés

60'▲Arnau Camaño←▼Marc Roquet

60'▲Ferran Generó←▼Daniel Peña

60'▲Dani Ribelles←▼Bernat Casadevall

75'▲Guillem Escarrabill←▼Xavi Aparicio

Tona substitutes

CamañoGeneróRibellesEscarrabill

Manager: Miguel Ángel Motoso

65'▲D. Almeida←▼Héctor Rodríguez

72'▲Moli←▼Rober Mañas

72'▲A. Amhot←▼Sergi Rosanas

83'▲Jordi Buyreu←▼Lamelas

83'▲Marc Font←▼Julen Álvarez

Prat substitutes

AlmeidaMoliAmhotBuyreuFont

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Tona 2–3 Prat

Prat beat Tona 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 30, 2025.

Goals: Flavio Ribeiro (12'), Miguel Fernández (15'), Marc Roquet (47'), Jan Jou (56'), Rober Mañas (57').

The match was played at Camp de futbol de Tona 2 in Tona.

Tona vs Prat — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Tona 2–3 Prat