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Tona vs Grama — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Tona
Tona
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Grama
Grama
9/28/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 4Camp de futbol de Tona 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Tona42%
×Draw26%
Grama32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tona
1.41
Grama
1.19

Tona creates 18% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 95 away

creates per match

Tona
1.30
Grama
1.34

allows per match

Tona
1.03
Grama
1.52

finishing

Tona+0.00on par
Grama+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tona ↓

Grama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tona or draw
68%
Tona or Grama
74%
Draw or Grama
58%

Winning margin

Tona wins by 2+
20%
Grama wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tona 1+ goals
76%
Tona 2+ goals
41%
Tona 3+ goals
17%
Grama 1+ goals
70%
Grama 2+ goals
33%
Grama 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tona (draw refunded)
57%
Grama (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tona at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 66 matches

Grama away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tona attack 1.30 + Grama defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.41

Grama attack 1.34 + Tona defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tona scores more
42%
level
26%
Grama scores more
32%

Tona at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tona 1 – 3 Grama

Grama beat Tona 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Camp de futbol de Tona 2 in Tona.