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Tona vs Girona II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Tona
Tona
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Girona II
Girona II
4/13/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 30Camp de futbol de Tona 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Tona35%
×Draw29%
Girona II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tona
1.10
Girona II
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 78 away

creates per match

Tona
1.30
Girona II
1.23

allows per match

Tona
1.03
Girona II
0.91

finishing

Tona+0.00on par
Girona II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tona ↓

Girona II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tona or draw
64%
Tona or Girona II
71%
Draw or Girona II
65%

Winning margin

Tona wins by 2+
14%
Girona II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tona 1+ goals
67%
Tona 2+ goals
30%
Tona 3+ goals
10%
Girona II 1+ goals
68%
Girona II 2+ goals
31%
Girona II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tona (draw refunded)
49%
Girona II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tona at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 66 matches

Girona II away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.91 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tona attack 1.30 + Girona II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.10

Girona II attack 1.23 + Tona defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tona scores more
35%
level
29%
Girona II scores more
36%

Girona II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tona vs Girona II

Tona and Girona II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Camp de futbol de Tona 2 in Tona.