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Tona vs Badalona — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Tona
Tona
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Badalona
Badalona
11/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 12Camp de futbol de Tona 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tona38%
×Draw29%
Badalona33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tona
1.15
Badalona
1.04

Tona creates 11% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tona
1.30
Badalona
1.05

allows per match

Tona
1.03
Badalona
1.00

finishing

Tona+0.00on par
Badalona+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tona ↓

Badalona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tona or draw
67%
Tona or Badalona
71%
Draw or Badalona
62%

Winning margin

Tona wins by 2+
16%
Badalona wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tona 1+ goals
68%
Tona 2+ goals
32%
Tona 3+ goals
11%
Badalona 1+ goals
65%
Badalona 2+ goals
28%
Badalona 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tona (draw refunded)
54%
Badalona (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tona at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 66 matches

Badalona away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tona attack 1.30 + Badalona defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Badalona attack 1.05 + Tona defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tona scores more
38%
level
29%
Badalona scores more
33%

Tona at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tona 0 – 0 Badalona

Tona and Badalona drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Camp de futbol de Tona 2 in Tona.