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Tomori Berat vs Turbina Cërrik — 1st Division 2019

Tomori Berat
Tomori Berat
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
12/18/20211st Division1st Division · Round 14Stadiumi Tomori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Tomori Berat55%
×Draw25%
Turbina Cërrik20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomori Berat
1.64
Turbina Cërrik
0.89

Tomori Berat creates 84% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 52 away

creates per match

Tomori Berat
1.36
Turbina Cërrik
0.83

allows per match

Tomori Berat
0.95
Turbina Cërrik
1.92

finishing

Tomori Berat+0.00on par
Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomori Berat ↓

Turbina Cërrik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tomori Berat or draw
80%
Tomori Berat or Turbina Cërrik
75%
Draw or Turbina Cërrik
45%

Winning margin

Tomori Berat wins by 2+
30%
Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tomori Berat 1+ goals
81%
Tomori Berat 2+ goals
49%
Tomori Berat 3+ goals
23%
Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
59%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
22%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tomori Berat (draw refunded)
73%
Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomori Berat at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 55 matches

Turbina Cërrik away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.92 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomori Berat attack 1.36 + Turbina Cërrik defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.64

Turbina Cërrik attack 0.83 + Tomori Berat defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tomori Berat scores more
55%
level
25%
Turbina Cërrik scores more
20%

Tomori Berat at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tomori Berat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tomori Berat vs Turbina Cërrik

Tomori Berat beat Turbina Cërrik 4-0 in 1st Division on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Tomori in Berat.