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Tomori Berat vs Skenderbeu Korce — 1st Division 2019

Tomori Berat
Tomori Berat
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Skenderbeu Korce
Skenderbeu Korce
10/15/20221st Division1st Division · Round 6Stadiumi Tomori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tomori Berat33%
×Draw30%
Skenderbeu Korce37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomori Berat
0.99
Skenderbeu Korce
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 29 away

creates per match

Tomori Berat
1.36
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21

allows per match

Tomori Berat
0.95
Skenderbeu Korce
0.62

finishing

Tomori Berat+0.00on par
Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomori Berat ↓

Skenderbeu Korce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tomori Berat or draw
63%
Tomori Berat or Skenderbeu Korce
70%
Draw or Skenderbeu Korce
67%

Winning margin

Tomori Berat wins by 2+
12%
Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tomori Berat 1+ goals
63%
Tomori Berat 2+ goals
26%
Tomori Berat 3+ goals
8%
Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals
66%
Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals
29%
Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tomori Berat (draw refunded)
47%
Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomori Berat at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 55 matches

Skenderbeu Korce away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomori Berat attack 1.36 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.99

Skenderbeu Korce attack 1.21 + Tomori Berat defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tomori Berat scores more
33%
level
30%
Skenderbeu Korce scores more
37%

Skenderbeu Korce at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Skenderbeu Korce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tomori Berat vs Skenderbeu Korce

Skenderbeu Korce beat Tomori Berat 1-0 in 1st Division on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Tomori in Berat.