Tomori Berat 1–1 Pogradeci: Result & Stats

Tomori Berat

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pogradeci

4/11/2021

1st Division · Promotion Round - 1Stadiumi Tomori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Tomori Berat45%

×Draw27%

Pogradeci28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tomori BeratExpected goals in this matchPogradeci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.05

Tomori Berat

1.39

Pogradeci

1.05

Tomori Berat creates 32% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 73 away

1.36

creates per match

1.15

0.95

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Tomori Berat

1.36

Pogradeci

1.15

allows per match

Tomori Berat

0.95

Pogradeci

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tomori Berat+0.00on par

Pogradeci+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomori Berat ↓

Pogradeci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tomori Berat or draw

72%

Tomori Berat or Pogradeci

73%

Draw or Pogradeci

55%

Winning margin

Tomori Berat wins by 2+

21%

Pogradeci wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tomori Berat 1+ goals

75%

Tomori Berat 2+ goals

40%

Tomori Berat 3+ goals

16%

Pogradeci 1+ goals

65%

Pogradeci 2+ goals

28%

Pogradeci 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tomori Berat (draw refunded)

61%

Pogradeci (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomori Berat at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 55 matches

Pogradeci away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomori Berat attack 1.36 + Pogradeci defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Pogradeci attack 1.15 + Tomori Berat defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tomori Berat scores more

45%

level

27%

Pogradeci scores more

28%

Tomori Berat at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tomori Berat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff