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Tomori Berat vs Flamurtari — 1st Division 2019

Tomori Berat
Tomori Berat
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Flamurtari
Flamurtari
12/12/20221st Division1st Division · Round 11Stadiumi Tomori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Tomori Berat38%
×Draw28%
Flamurtari34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomori Berat
1.20
Flamurtari
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 55 away

creates per match

Tomori Berat
1.36
Flamurtari
1.27

allows per match

Tomori Berat
0.95
Flamurtari
1.04

finishing

Tomori Berat+0.00on par
Flamurtari+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomori Berat ↓

Flamurtari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tomori Berat or draw
66%
Tomori Berat or Flamurtari
72%
Draw or Flamurtari
62%

Winning margin

Tomori Berat wins by 2+
16%
Flamurtari wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tomori Berat 1+ goals
70%
Tomori Berat 2+ goals
34%
Tomori Berat 3+ goals
12%
Flamurtari 1+ goals
67%
Flamurtari 2+ goals
30%
Flamurtari 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tomori Berat (draw refunded)
53%
Flamurtari (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomori Berat at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 55 matches

Flamurtari away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.04 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomori Berat attack 1.36 + Flamurtari defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Flamurtari attack 1.27 + Tomori Berat defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tomori Berat scores more
38%
level
28%
Flamurtari scores more
34%

Tomori Berat at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tomori Berat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Tomori Berat 2–0 Flamurtari

Tomori Berat beat Flamurtari 2-0 in 1st Division on December 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Tomori in Berat.