Tomori Berat 1–0 Burreli: Result & Stats

Tomori Berat

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Burreli

3/18/2023

1st Division · Round 20Stadiumi Tomori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Tomori Berat48%

×Draw27%

Burreli24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tomori BeratExpected goals in this matchBurreli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.91

Tomori Berat

1.40

Burreli

0.91

Tomori Berat creates 54% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 100 away

1.36

creates per match

0.86

0.95

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Tomori Berat

1.36

Burreli

0.86

allows per match

Tomori Berat

0.95

Burreli

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tomori Berat+0.00on par

Burreli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomori Berat ↓

Burreli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tomori Berat or draw

76%

Tomori Berat or Burreli

73%

Draw or Burreli

52%

Winning margin

Tomori Berat wins by 2+

23%

Burreli wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tomori Berat 1+ goals

75%

Tomori Berat 2+ goals

41%

Tomori Berat 3+ goals

17%

Burreli 1+ goals

60%

Burreli 2+ goals

23%

Burreli 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tomori Berat (draw refunded)

66%

Burreli (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomori Berat at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 55 matches

Burreli away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomori Berat attack 1.36 + Burreli defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Burreli attack 0.86 + Tomori Berat defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tomori Berat scores more

48%

level

27%

Burreli scores more

24%

Tomori Berat at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tomori Berat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff